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比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!

2017-12-02 20:28:05 和訊名家 

  對於比特幣這一世界上最早的電子貨幣來說,今年一年可謂是前無古人的牛市(後有沒有來者不知道)。在這一年裏,比特幣價格可謂是“火箭式”躥升。從年初的1000美元上下,一路攀升至近期的10000美元以上。

  下面這張圖清楚表明,比特幣在這一年裏漲速越來越快,感覺已經沒有什麽力量能阻止它了:

比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!  

  與此同時,其他的數字貨幣也在以難以想象的速度上漲。從今年初至今,以太幣價格已經上漲了約50倍,達到470美元左右,與比特幣有著約20倍的價差。

  數字貨幣價格的飛速上漲,也吸引了各路資本競相逐鹿。數字貨幣首發募集(ICO)蓬勃發展起來,僅今年一年的在ICO募集資金總數,就占所有ICO募集資金的92%。 通過這種看似“不靠譜”的機制,約有38億美元的資金被募集。

  與此同時,ICO也給投機者帶來了豐厚的匯報。紅杉資本(Mangrove Capital)上個月的一份報告指出,該機構跟蹤的204個ICO的平均回報率高達1320%,大大超越了傳統投資方式的回報率。

  盡管在中國和韓國暫時被禁止,但ICO並沒有放緩其發展的步伐。 本月迄今為止(截至2017年11月26日),ICO已經創下了新高,達到了7.432億美元,超過了2017年9月創紀錄的月份(6.629億美元)。

  近期比特幣持續大幅度的價格上漲已經成為了關註的焦點,瘋漲的背後,也引發了市場對於比特幣泡沫是否會破滅的廣泛擔憂。

  例如,資深投資人士Peter Tchir近日就在福布斯撰文,盡管比特幣早前與金融市場主流產品對接(如ETF、期貨等),有助於推動其價格上漲,但最近陡升的漲幅及一些跡象表明,未來比特幣的價格上漲可能有所放緩,甚至出現大幅調整。他還將對比特幣的牛市觀點轉向中立。

  不管比特幣是繼續瘋狂上漲,還是泡沫破滅,大部分的報道都忽略了隨之而來的一個意想不到的後果。那就是,為了“挖掘”更多的比特幣,全球用電量正在迎來高峰

  比特幣挖礦如何消耗電力?

  正如IEEE解釋的那樣,比特幣采礦即使是在非常基本規模上進行,也需要昂貴的計算機硬件,並且消耗大量電力。

  由於挖取比特幣使用的計算機硬件規模越來越大,比特幣礦的用電量自然越來越高。

  根據Digiconomist發布的比特幣能源消費指數,截至2017年11月20日,預計比特幣今年全年的用電量為29.05TWh,相當於全球總電力消耗的0.13%。雖然這可能聽起來不是很多,但這意味著,目前比特幣挖掘所使用的電量之和,超過了全世界159個國家各自的用電量,其中包括尼日利亞這樣的非洲國家,也包括了愛爾蘭這樣的歐洲國家。

比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!

  如果把所有的比特幣礦當做一個國家,那麽該國的用電量方面排名世界第61位。

  有關比特幣挖礦和用電量,還有一些有趣的事實:

  僅過去的一個月,比特幣挖礦用電量就增長了29.98%。

  如果以這種速度持續增長,比特幣采礦將在2020年2月之前消耗全球所有的電力。

  預計2017全年度全球比特幣挖礦收入:72億美元(54億英鎊)

  預計同期全球挖礦成本:15億美元(11億英鎊)

  比特幣挖礦的用電量相當於:240萬美國人的用電量(超過休斯敦人口),也相當於610萬英國人的用電量,並超過了美國12個州各自的用電量(阿拉斯加州,夏威夷州,愛達荷州,緬因州,蒙大拿州,新罕布什爾州,新墨西哥州,北達科他州,羅得島州,南達科他州,佛蒙特州和懷俄明州)。

比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!

  電力消費數據主要來自維基百科,數據主要來源於2014年,因為這是最新的數據。 和其他的一些來源不同,這裏的用電量包括住宅,商業和工業的綜合,因而可能比別處引用的其他數據更高。

  比特幣挖礦用電量:與美國的比較

  在進行研究的同時,我們發現,如果將比特幣挖礦用電量與美國各州進行比較,可能會比較有趣。

比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!

  總體而言,比特幣挖礦的用電量超過了美國12個州各自的用電量,分別是阿拉斯加州,夏威夷州,愛達荷州,緬因州,蒙大拿州,新罕布什爾州,新墨西哥州,北達科他州,羅得島州,南達科他州,佛蒙特州和懷俄明州。

  比特幣礦用電量:急劇上升

  盡管比特幣礦業目前僅消耗全球電力產量的0.13%,但其發展速度卻非常快。比特幣能源消耗指數估計,比特幣挖礦耗電量比上個月上漲了29.98%。 

比特幣!別漲那麽快了 等一等你的電網!

  如果這個增長率繼續下去,並且發電能力不再增加的話,比特幣挖掘的用電量將會:

  到2018年10月,超過全英國的用電量(309 TWh)

  到2019年7月,超過全美國的用電量(3,913 TWh)

  到2020年2月份消耗全世界的發電量(21,776 TWh)

  也就是說,如果全世界的發電能力不能和比特幣耗電能力增長同步的話,那麽2年零4個月後,全世界發的電還不夠比特幣挖礦的。

  挖礦的動機:利潤豐厚?

  比特幣能源消耗指數估計,2017年比特幣挖礦年度總成本為15億美元(11億英鎊)。

  但是,我們也可以設想,比特幣采礦可以在電力較為便宜的地方進行:美國每千瓦時的平均零售價格為10.41美分,這意味著,使用28.05TWh的電力將耗資30.2億美元。

  在英國,電費比美國要貴一些,如果你付出每千瓦10.10便士的最低用電價格(約為倫敦家庭購買一只燈泡的價格),那麽同樣是28.05TWh的電力,總花費將達到29.3億英鎊(合38.9億美元),比美國要貴26%。

  有趣的是,比特幣上個月的漲幅剛剛超過了40%,這一增幅大於挖礦所需電力的增幅。這意味著,考慮到全球比特幣挖礦年收入估計為72億美元(54億英鎊),即使在按照上面更高的成本數據估算,也意味著,挖取比特幣依然是獲利豐厚的買賣。

  以下為英文原文,略有修改

  Will Bitcoin Mining Consume All The World's Current ElectricityProduction By Feb 2020?

  Bitcoin’songoing meteoric price rise has received the bulk of recent press attentionwith a lot of discussion around whether or not it’s a bubble waiting to burst.

  However, most the coverage has missed out oneof the more interesting and unintended consequences of this price increase.That is the surge in global electricity consumption used to “mine” moreBitcoins.

  How Does Bitcoin Mining ConsumeElectricity?

  At a very basic level Bitcoin mining requires expensive and powerhungry computer hardware. As the the IEEEexplains:

  Mining power is high and getting higher,thanks to a computational arms race. Recall thatthe required number of zeros at the beginning of a hash is tweaked biweekly toadjust the difficulty of creating a block—and more zeros means more difficulty.

  The Bitcoin algorithm adds these zeros in order to keep the rateat which blocks are added constant, at one new block every 10 minutes. The idea is to compensate forthe mining hardware becoming more and more powerful.

  When the hashing is harder, it takes morecomputations to create a block and thus more effort to earn new bitcoins, whichare then added to circulation.

  According to Digiconomist’s Bitcoin EnergyConsumption Index, as of Monday November 20th, 2017 Bitcoin’s currentestimated annual electricity consumption stands at 29.05TWh.

  That’s the equivalent of 0.13% of total globalelectricity consumption. While that may not sound like a lot, it means Bitcoin mining is now using more electricity than159 individual countries (as you can see from themap below). More than Ireland or Nigeria.

  If Bitcoin miners were a country they’d rank 61st in the world in terms ofelectricity consumption.

  Hereare a few other interesting facts about Bitcoin mining and electricityconsumption:

  o Inthe past month alone, Bitcoin mining electricity consumption is estimated tohave increased by 29.98%

  o Ifit keeps increasing at this rate, Bitcoin mining will consume all the world’s electricity byFebruary 2020.

  o Estimatedannualised global mining revenues: $7.2billion USD (£5.4 billion)

  o Estimatedglobal mining costs: $1.5billion USD (£1.1 billion)

  o Numberof Americans who could be powered by bitcoin mining: 2.4 million (more thanthe population of Houston)

  o Numberof Britons who could be powered by bitcoin mining: 6.1 million (more thanthe population of Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Bradford,Liverpool, Bristol, Croydon, Coventry, Leicester & Nottingham combined) OrScotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

  o BitcoinMining consumes more electricity than 12 US states (Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine,Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota,Vermont and Wyoming)

  All maps created using Mapchart.net.

  Bitcoin Mining ElectricityConsumption Vs Countries

  The mapabove shows which countries currently consume more or less electricity thanthat consumed by global Bitcoin mining.

  The map below shows how much more or lessbitcoin mining energy consumption compares to each countries energy usage with100% being equal.

  E.g.Ireland currently consumes an estimated 25 TWh of electricity per year, soglobal Bitcoin mining consumption is 116%, or 16% more than they consume. TheUK consumes an estimated 309 TWh of electricity per year so global Bitcoinmining consumption is only equivalent to 9.4% of the UK total.

  As mentioned, above the data for Bitcoin mining energy consumptioncomes from the BitcoinEnergy Consumption Index. You can read abouttheir assumptionshere.

  Electricity consumption data mostly comes from the CIA via Wikipedia and is mostly for 2014, since that’s the most recent yearavailable. Unlike some other sources it includes, residential, commercial andindustrial use, so may be higher than other figures quoted elsewhere.

  Bitcoin Mining ElectricityConsumption Vs US States

  Whiledoing the research we also though it might be interesting to compare Bitcoinmining energy consumption to US states. Overall, 12 States consume lesselectricity than Bitcoin Mining (Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, NewHampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont andWyoming).

  Growth of Bitcoin MiningElectricity Consumption

  While Bitcoin Mining is only currently consuming 0.13% of the world’selectricity output, it’s growing incredibly quickly.

  The Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index estimates consumption hasincreased by 29.98% over the past month.

  If thatgrowth rate were to continue, and countries did not add any new powergenerating capacity, Bitcoin mining would:

  o Begreater than UK electricity consumption by October 2018 (309 TWh)

  o Begreater than US electricity consumption by July 2019 (3,913 TWh)

  o Consume all the world’selectricity by February 2020. (21,776 TWh)

  The Cost of Mining Bitcoins

  The Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index estimates that the totalannual cost of mining Bitcoins stands at $1.5 billion (£1.1 billion).

  However,that assumes Bitcoin mining is occurring in places with cheap electricity (notan unreasonable assumption).

  The US average retail price per kilowatthour is 10.41 cents, whichmeans using 28.05 TWh would cost: $3.02 billion (£2.28 billion).

  In the UK it would even more expensive, assuming you paid the rockbottom price of 10.10 pence per kilowatthour (Bulb’s prices for London homes) it would still cost £2.93 billion ($3.89 billion).

  Interestingly, Bitcoin’s priceincrease over the last month has been just over 40%, which is greater than theincrease in electricity consumption.

  This means the estimated annualised global mining revenues nowstand at $7.2 billion USD (£5.4 billion), which even at the more expensive estimates listed above, meansit’s still very profitable.

  

(責任編輯:趙然 HZ002)
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